On Tuesday, representatives from NASA, NOAA, and the international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel held a teleconference. They announced that the Sun has reached its solar maximum period, which could last for the next year.
The solar cycle is a natural process the Sun undergoes, alternating between low and high magnetic activity. About every 11 years, the Sun’s magnetic poles flip. This transition changes the Sun from a calm state to an active, stormy one.
NASA and NOAA track sunspots to monitor the solar cycle and predict solar activity. Sunspots are cooler areas on the Sun, caused by concentrated magnetic fields. They are the visible signs of active regions where solar eruptions occur.
“During solar maximum, the number of sunspots increases,” said Jamie Favors, director of NASA’s Space Weather Program. “This rise in activity gives us a chance to learn more about our star but also affects Earth and the solar system.”
Solar activity influences space weather. This can impact satellites, astronauts, and communication systems like radio and GPS. When the Sun is more active, space weather events become more frequent. Recent solar activity has increased aurora visibility and affected satellites and infrastructure.
In May 2024, a series of large solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sent charged particles toward Earth. This created the strongest geomagnetic storm in two decades, resulting in spectacular auroras.
“This announcement doesn’t mean we’ve seen the peak of solar activity,” said Elsayed Talaat, director of NOAA’s space weather operations. “While the Sun has reached solar maximum, the exact peak month will be identified later.”
Scientists cannot determine the peak of this solar maximum for several months. It’s identified only after a consistent decline in solar activity. However, the last two years have shown high sunspot activity, indicating an active phase that could last another year before declining again.
Since 1989, the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel has worked to predict future solar cycles. Solar cycles have been observed since Galileo first noted sunspots in the 1600s. Each cycle varies; some peak more dramatically or last longer than others.
“Solar Cycle 25 sunspot activity has slightly exceeded expectations,” said Lisa Upton, co-chair of the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel. “We have seen large storms, but they are not bigger than expected for this phase.”
The most powerful flare of this cycle was an X9.0 on October 3. NOAA expects more solar and geomagnetic storms during this solar maximum. This could lead to opportunities for aurora sightings and potential impacts on technology.
NASA and NOAA are preparing for future space weather research. In December 2024, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe will make its closest approach to the Sun, aiming to help researchers understand space weather directly from the source.
NASA plans to launch several missions in the coming year to better understand space weather and its impacts across the solar system. These predictions are crucial for supporting NASA’s Artemis missions. Monitoring space weather is essential for managing astronaut exposure to radiation.
For updates on space weather impacts on Earth, visit NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, the official source for forecasts and alerts.
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